{"id":2,"date":"2019-12-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-12-05T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/news\/201912_2\/"},"modified":"2023-05-23T10:42:23","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T01:42:23","slug":"new-publication-forecasting-pv-installed-capacity-in-japan-toward-fy-2030-2050-2019-2020-edition-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/news\/201912_2\/","title":{"rendered":"New publication \u201cForecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030\/2050  (2019-2020 Edition)\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>RTS Corporation has released the English version of \u201cForecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030\/2050 (2019 \u2013 2020 Edition)\u201d on Monday, December 9, 2019.<\/p>\n<p>In this report, RTS made forecasts on the PV installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2030 and FY 2050 based on the \u201cFifth Strategic Energy Plan\u201d that positions renewable energy as a mainstream power source, as well as the global trends of PV power generation. RTS forecasted the annual and cumulative PV installed capacities taking into account of the social backgrounds and cost reduction of PV system to the international level toward FY 2030. In addition, a specific path for \u201c150 GW PV installed capacity in Japan by 2030\u201d that RTS has been proposing was shown. Moreover, consideration was given so that the forecasts work as a key to future business planning by presenting an image of PV installation towards FY 2050.<\/p>\n<p>This report also reflects zero Yen installation business models based on the \u201cthird party ownership model\u201d that the industry is working on as post-FIT measures, sales of storage battery systems as a part of post-FIT measures represented by the \u201cYear 2019 issue\u201d, etc. and includes post-FIT market forecast and residential\/ industrial market forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis of the forecasts of PV installed capacity was made under two cases, \u201cBAU scenario\u201d in which policies and deregulation will progress as an extension of the present, and the \u201caccelerated installation and technology development scenario (accelerated scenario)\u201d in which ambitious policies will be set out and development of PV and balance of system (BOS) technologies will be accelerated. As a result, the market is estimated to reach 8 GW annually and 133 GW cumulatively by FY 2030 (DC based, same applies hereinafter) under the \u201cBAU scenario\u201d, and 12 GW annually and 158 GW cumulatively under the \u201caccelerated scenario\u201d. Analysis considering the removal (reuse, recycle, disposal, etc.) of PV systems was also made.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4729\" alt=\"pic1\" src=\"..\/..\/..\/uploads\/2019\/12\/pic1.png\" width=\"807\" height=\"539\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic1.png 807w, https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic1-300x200.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 807px) 100vw, 807px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>For the forecasts of the installed capacity by capacity range under the \u201cBAU scenario\u201d and \u201caccelerated scenario,\u201d the expansion of the self-consumption market and the market in which supply and demand are integrated (supply\/ demand integrated market) following the termination of the FIT program plays an important role. In the first half of 2020s, the market will be driven by the self-consumption market and the supply\/ demand integrated market through new business models such as zero Yen installation, etc. while PV systems utilizing the FIT program and tender scheme will hold the market share.<br \/>\nAs for commercial PV systems, transition from ground-mounted to rooftop installations will occur. Furthermore, in the 2030s, the \u201cnew application market\u201d that will cultivate the world of entirely new application will grow, and may grow further to the market with annual capacity of 12 to 22 GW in FY 2050.<br \/>\nBesides, the trend of installed capacity \u201cby application\u201d, and trend of installed capacity \u201cby service area of electric company\u201d which indicates regional distribution, are also shown with detailed data.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4730\" alt=\"pic2\" src=\"..\/..\/..\/uploads\/2019\/12\/pic2.png\" width=\"809\" height=\"543\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic2.png 809w, https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic2-300x201.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 809px) 100vw, 809px\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"left\">On the premise of forecasting installed capacity, the top runner prices of residential and industrial PV systems will continue to drop greatly reflecting the international price level. The PV system price is 152 to 252 Yen\/W as of today but is estimated to reduce to 89 to 108 Yen\/W by FY 2030 under the \u201caccelerated scenario\u201d. The estimated levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is already 11.8 to 14.6 Yen\/kWh as of today, which is cheaper than the grid electricity. Furthermore, the price is estimated to decrease to almost the level of avoidable cost, 5.3 to 5.7 Yen\/kWh by FY 2030.<\/p>\n<p align=\"left\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4731\" alt=\"pic3\" src=\"..\/..\/..\/uploads\/2019\/12\/pic3.png\" width=\"805\" height=\"548\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic3.png 805w, https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic3-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 805px) 100vw, 805px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The price and installed capacity of \u201cstorage system\u201d, an essential partner of the PV system that takes an important role of distributed power source, were forecasted for the first time in this report. The installed capacity of residential storage system (stationary storage battery and V2H (Vehicle to Home) system, etc.) will expand driven by the post-FIT demand, etc. and may grow to maximum 3,900 MWh\/year by FY 2030. Meanwhile, the installed capacity of industrial storage system will expand, led by the growth of supply\/ demand integrated market, etc. and may grow to maximum 4,000 MWh\/year by FY 2030.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4732\" alt=\"pic4\" src=\"..\/..\/..\/uploads\/2019\/12\/pic4.png\" width=\"763\" height=\"504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic4.png 763w, https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2019\/12\/pic4-300x198.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 763px) 100vw, 763px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>For details of RTS English reports,\u00a0please<a href=\"https:\/\/rts-pv-wp.grgr.link\/en\/news\/201302_43\/\" class=\"broken_link\"> click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RTS Corporation has released the English version of \u201cForecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030\/2050 (2019 \u2013 2020 Edition)\u201d on Monday, December 9, 2019. In this report, RTS made forecasts on the PV installed capacity in Japan toward FY 2030 and FY 2050 based on the \u201cFifth Strategic Energy Plan\u201d that positions renewable energy as a mainstream power source, as well as the global trends of PV power generation. RTS forecasted the annual and cumulative PV installed capacities<span style=\" font-weight: bold; display: block; text-align: right;\">&#8230;\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"weekly_highlights":[],"blog":[],"class_list":["post-2","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-schedule"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>New publication \u201cForecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan toward FY 2030\/2050 (2019-2020 Edition)\u201d | RTS Corporation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Based upon over 40 years of our experiences and accumulated knowledge in PV,RTS Corporation has been providing in\" \/>\n<meta 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